Extrapolation of the carcinogenic potency of fibers from rats to humans.

In 1999 Berry published a model for mesothelioma incidence following fiber exposure. He concluded, that the influence of the solubility of fibers on the mesothelioma rate is 17 times higher in humans than in rats. This conclusion may be helpful for evaluating the carcinogenic risk from man-made vitreous fibers, but it had little influence on some recent discussions. It has been demonstrated using this model, that in an injection experiment with rats, fibers with elimination constants of 0.1/year and 1/year--which would approximately correspond to crocidolite and perhaps ceramic fibers--differ in their mesothelioma risk only by a ratio of 3.2:1. In contrast, for humans exposed continuously from age 20 to age 60 a risk ratio of 4,750:1 is obtained. This result may be helpful for the assessment of the human cancer risk e.g., from exposure to refractory ceramic fibers. However, uncertainty is large, since the life-span of rats is too low to measure the elimination rate of bio-persistent fibers sufficiently.